Are we back in the green or is this just a bounce before the next dip?

The last three days have been intense for just about everyone in the crypto market as Bitcoin took a major dive past some serious support lines and into the low $6,000 range. This came as a surprise to many investors who were celebrating after most major cryptocurrencies booked solid gains on Saturday.

So what caused the latest slide?

China announced a full ban on crypto which, not surprisingly scared the crap out of investors around the world who saw the world’s most populous country leaving the crypto game for now. Of course this created more fear that other countries would follow and coupled with some other bad news a number of investors started dumping Bitcoin like it was going out of style.

Here’s a look at Bitcoin’s price movement over the last week, brace yourself, it’s a bit hard to look at:

bitcoin-feb-declines

Reddit quickly turned from the HODL crew to the “peace I’m out guys this is getting too crazy” crew as many long-time crypto HOLDers decided to throw in the towel. If anyone thought that weak hands had been flushed out in January, it’s safe to say that even relatively strong hands were flushed out over the last few days.

At the same time the stock market plunged more than 4% booking it’s largest drop in almost eight years which only seemed to add fuel to the fire.

Meanwhile, while the sky was falling around us, lots of good news was coming out. Popular traditional investment site The Motely Fool covered Ripple, Ethereum got coverage in a Forex publication which cited that the crypto seemed almost immune to the carnage going on around it, Charlie Lee even came out and said he’s bullish on both Bitcoin and Litecoin. Still, despite lots of good news it looks like the bears owned the market…until today.

This morning cryptocurrency investors woke up to something they hadn’t seen for days, a screen full of green. Just about every major cryptocurrency bounced up as the US Senate held hearings on cryptocurrencies:

The gains came amid a U.S. Senate hearing on virtual currencies in which J. Christopher Giancarlo, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Jay Clayton, chairman at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) testified. The Senate is examining the role of the SEC and CFTC in regulating virtual currencies. (Source – Reuters)

So now the big question is. Are we finally starting to see a retracement back up towards the highs that we saw in December or is this just another bounce on the way further down. No technical analysis is going to save us now, only time will tell, but after a rough few days I know some of us are going to sleep a little bit better tonight.

Crypto drops back into the red after strong Saturday gains

price-going-down

Yesterday gave crypto enthusiasts around the world a much needed boost as most market spend the day in the green. Today, well let’s not sugar-coat it, the bloodbath continues as just about every major cryptocurrency is down as of the time of this post being published. The one shining star over the past 48 hours is Litecoin which has continued to stay in the green while everything else dips back into the red.

Here’s a look at the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap as it stands right now:

crypto-prices-feb4-2018

(Source – CoinMarketCap.com)

The big questions on everyone’s mind right now is – how low can it go? The reality is, nobody really knows but I think one of the biggest challenges we’re facing right now is the fact that just about every altcoin drops when Bitcoin does, so if Bitcoin is down, it takes the whole market with it.

I think we’ll look back on these times years from now and laugh about the good old days when the entire crypto market was driven by Bitcoin, but for now it looks like that’s the world we’re living in. While you can do all the technical analysis you want on other altcoins, the reality is, if Bitcoin drops like a rock, others are going to follow.

CoinTelegraph shared some interesting insights on Bitcoin’s price movement yesterday:

Bitcoin is in a firm bear grip. It has declined about 55 percent from its high. With the recent fall, the cryptocurrency has retraced close to 78.6 percent of the latest leg of the rally. We find first signs of buying at $8000 levels. (Source – CoinTelegraph.com)

While I completely agree that the bears are in control here, I don’t think that traditional technical analysis makes a lot of sense given the current market conditions. The reality is that stronger forces are in play here than can be described by trading patterns developed for the stock market, which exhibits much more predictable some would dare to say sane, behavior.

That being said, I do think analysis like this will create somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy because everyone’s telling crypto traders to buy BTC if it hits $8k so there’s a good chance that buying at $8k will mean booking profits in the short term, but let’s be honest, the market could continue to drop like a rock after that.

Like I said above, I hope we’ll move to a world where the price of every other crypto isn’t so dependent on Bitcoin but for now I think we’ll have to realize, that’s the world we live in.

CoinMarketCap takes Korean prices off the exchange – inspires panic selling

The cryptocurrency market went for a wild ride today as the CoinMarketCap.com decided to suddenly remove Korean exchanges prices in their algorithms. For those who are living here in the US you might not know that prices for cryptocurrencies in other parts of the world are typically higher, and I mean a lot higher. Someone on Reddit gave a solid explanation of what happened:

cmc-removes-korean-exchanges

Like the above except says, this sudden change caused people to think that the crypto market was crashing. Then CNBC added insult to injury by announcing that Ripple had crashed by 30% in the last 24-hours.

ripple-crashes-30percent

This is where the term FUD shows the impact it can make. Now that mainstream media is covering cryptocurrencies the way they do stocks, they are actually massively increasing the price and in the case of today, causing a lot of panicked selling. Of course this might also be because cryptocurrencies have a lot more volatility than most stocks so people are much more likely to quickly enter and exit positions.

ripple-fud-30-percent-crash

As you can see from the chart above showing the insanity of the last 24-hours, Ripple did briefly take a dive, scared a bunch of people and then bounced back up. Bitcoin took a dive around the same time into the mid $14,000 range before following on a similar path to recovery.

All this being said, there’s still a fair amount of controversy surrounding Ripple given how distanced XRP is from the Ripple technology.

“The reason ripple is surging so much is it’s a bubble,” said Erik Voorhees, CEO of digital asset exchange ShapeShift and a vocal advocate for Bitcoin as a way to separate money and the state. “Testing crypto with banks doesn’t make sense. The whole idea of crypto is you don’t need a bank.” (Source – CoinTelegraph)

This coupled with the recent market volatility is causing a lot of fear amongst crypto investors, many of whom are new to the game and think they could lose their investment overnight. Of course this hasn’t stopped people from signing up for exchanges and jumping into the madness. Currently there are 100,000 a day signing up for new accounts across all exchanges.

Something tells me this is going to be one of those weeks where every morning offers a new surprise. What do you think?

Cardano hits $1.00, and it’s only the third day of 2018

cardano-logo

Last night Cardano did what many were expecting, just a lot earlier than expected as it pushed up to $1.00, a price point that most analysts had pegged for happening later in 2018.

cardano-at-one-dollar

Given that Cardano was sitting at around $0.50 a week ago this is a serious run that puts ADA (the cryptocurrency associated with Cardano) in the spotlight and as a real contender for the number four spot as it continues to gain on Bitcoin Cash.

Just in case you’re not fully versed on all your alt coins yet, here’s a quick primer on Cardano from our awesome buddies over at Reddit:

“Cardano is a security focused blockchain that harnesses the latest research and engineering insights to build a platform suitable for the highest value applications.

Built on a foundation of peer-reviewed research created through partnerships with the world’s foremost universities, Cardano aims to create a platform for decentralised applications and smart contracts that can be processed with a technique called formal verification.

This allows logical proof of the correctness of code and smart contracts, for those applications where value is high and security is paramount. Cardano combines this with an innovative layered approach that separates accounting of value from all other smart contract and computation activity.

This means functionality can be added to smart contract capabilities without changing the protocol responsible for the cryptocurrency.” (Source – Reddit)

The reason why most people don’t know as much about Cardano as they do about Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple, etc. is that it was launched in Q4 of last year so we’re still only a few months into a world where Cardano exists. Since its launch the cryptocurrency has received a lot of praise along with a fair share of skepticism which centers on the fact that Cardano is a private VC-funded company that owns a big chunk of ADA themselves.

Love it or hate it, Cardano is following in Ripple’s most recent footsteps and is quickly becoming one of the fastest-growing cryptocurrencies of 2018, only three days in. Like Ripple, if Cardano gets added to CoinBase we can expect to see even more growth and while there hasn’t been anything officially announced yet, given the trading volume ADA has seen over the last week it’s very likely on their radar now.

Will Ripple hit $2 in the last few days of 2017?

I woke up at around 3:00AM PST, and like most nights when I wake up in the middle of the night, I reached for my phone and checked-out the latest cryptocurrency prices. Here’s what I saw:

ripple-number2-crypto-currency

I honestly did a double-take when I saw this. I went to bed and Ripple was at $1.52, now it was the number two cryptocurrency in the world after overtaking Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum. As of this writing Ripple is sitting at $1.80 and has dropped into the #3 spot with Ethereum back at #2…for now.

What has been particularly interesting to see with the strong Ripple price movement this week is that most of the other cryptos can be down, and Ripple seems to be relatively untouched. Earlier this week when Bitcoin dropped into the $12,000 range it took Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and a number of other cryptocurrencies with it, but not Ripple.

Here’s a look at Ripple’s growth just this week:

Ripple-week-of-dec-22

Last Friday Ripple was hovering in the $1.00 range and $2 seemed like a pipedream, now it looks like $2 could happen, literally today. What’s even more surprising about this price move is that it happened after South Korean regulators announced they would be shutting down a number of cryptocurrency exchanges in the country. This news brought most other cryptocurrencies down with Bitcoin going as low as $13,100, but for some reason Ripple went in the opposite direction – up to fresh new highs.

Korean exchanges are frequently—if not always—the top markets for trading XRP. At one point, three of them accounted for 70% of total trading volumes. That number has since fallen to ~45%. However, XRP is still more liquid in Korea than anywhere else, making it an important part of the recent price action.

With all this in mind, you would imagine that XRP crashed after yesterday’s news broke. But that is the curious thing: XRP did not even tremble at the impending regulations.

In fact, XRP blasted off like it was in Cape Canaveral.

(Source – PriceConfidential.com)

So the question on everyone’s mind now is when will Ripple cross over the $2 mark. A number of people predicted this would happen sometime in 2018, almost nobody thought it would happen in December of 2017…and now literally since I started writing this post it has moved from $1.80 to $1.85 – hitting $2 today or tomorrow sounds a lot less crazy than it did a week ago.

Bitcoin retraces gains, drops below $15,000 brings Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash down with it

The last five days have been incredibly volatile in the cryptocurrency world and as we’ve seen, Bitcoin sets the pace for most of the other major cryptocurrenices. After dropping to the low $11,000 range on Friday Bitcoin regained its footing and surged back up to $16,000 yesterday causing most people to declare the end of the dip/crash/price correction. Currently the top new story on CoinTelegraph is about the strong recovery that Bitcoin had moving off of Friday’s lows:

This morning Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a peak of $16,930 and the total cryptocurrency market cap hit a high of 603 bln, after a steady past couple of days of growth. The market recovery comes in the wake of a major dip at the end of last week that was followed by several days of volatility. (Source – CoinTelegraph)

Well even though this article was published today and talks about a recovery with a peak of $16,930 – as of right now Bitcoin is down over close to $2,000 off it’s 24-hour high sitting just below $15,000.

bitcoin-price-dec27

I’m sure this is making more than a few investors and journalists wondering if it was too early to announce the recovery, i.e. we might still be in the middle of a nice frothy dip. Like we have seen over the last few days, when Bitcoin retraces its gains, so do most other popular altcoins – as of now Bitcoin Cash has dropped down to $2,642, Ethereum is down to $722, and Litecoin is down at $262.

Of course this begs the question – is this another buying opportunity, or is the dip that we all thought was over still in process? One thing’s for sure, today is going to be another exciting day in the crypto world.

What do you think? Is this another buying opportunity or signs that the “recovery” hasn’t quite happened yet?

Bitcoin is back up – crosses $16,000 in what some are calling a Christmas Miracle

bitcoin-going-up

Some are calling it a Christmas Miracle, others are calling it more proof of how volatile and truly unpredictable Bitcoin is. No matter what you want to call it, the latest dip that started Friday when BTC tested a critical support diving into the $10,000 range, seems to be over. For those who bought Bitcoin this weekend major profits could be realized this week if they timed it right.

Let’s say you bought 2 Bitcoin at it’s low on Friday (just four days ago), you could have sold that today for a $12,000 profit, in just two days. Of course nobody has a crystal ball so while some people were lucky enough to buy Bitcoin at it’s low on Friday, many who “bought the dip” did so in the $12,000 – $14,000 range.

The big question is – was that it? This four day price correction hardly feels like it warrants the hashtag #bitcoincrash. It’s also probably leaving more than a few Bitcoin investors pretty darn frustrated if they sold as it dropped. For everyone that bought Bitcoin in this dip there is an equal and opposite person (okay maybe it’s not one to one but you get the point!) who sold the dip…which is, errr, incredibly painful if the dip bounces right back four days later like it seems to be doing now.

bitcoin-crash.2017

Looking at the chart it really does seem, right now at least, like there was a pretty quick dip in Bitcoin and a lot of people freaked out. If you took a step back and looked at it, let’s say over the course of last month, it’s almost like nothing happened…

bitcoin-dec-2017

Sure, you can see the price drop on the 22nd…but let’s be honest, December has been an absolutely out of this world amazing month for Bitcoin. So while yes, it was scary for a minute there, this is hardly a crash, that being said, I’d say it’s fair to call it a price correction. The big question on everyone’s mind right now is – is a bigger dip coming?

Bitcoin Entrepreneur Julian Hosp was quoted saying that Bitcoin will likely go as high as $60,000 in 2018…but he still expects a dip, probably bigger than what we just saw. How low does Julian think it could go in a future dip? All the way down to $5,000.

“I think we’re going to see bitcoin hitting the $60,000 mark, but I also think we’re going to see bitcoin hitting the $5,000 mark,” said Hosp, co-founder and president of TenX, a firm that wants to make it easier for people to spend virtual currencies. (Source – CNBC)

While it’s hard to imagine Bitcoin going as low as $5,000 after seeing it bounce back so quickly this weekend, but as we all know, when it comes to cryptocurrency, absolutely anything is possible. For now it looks like investors who bought on this dip are sitting pretty right now while those who sold are probably kicking themselves for acting too soon…maybe next time they’ll remember the acronym that runs through most seasoned Bitcoin investors heads when something like this happens – HODL!

Bitcoin dips into the $13,000 range and we’re running out of good reasons why

Today was another tumultuous day for Bitcoin as it dropped into the low $13,000 range and is currently bouncing around between $13,000 – $14,000 seemingly finding some kind of support around the $13,100 level. On top of high volatility in the world’s favorite crypto, CoinDesk and CoinBase seem to be having a fairly substantial disagreement about pricing as Bitcoin currently price $745 higher on CoinBase than CoinDesk…

coindesk-vs-coinbase-bitcoin-price

So something weird is going on right now. While Friday’s dip to $10,000 was attributed for the most part (or at least speculated) to profit taking, it’s hard to know what exactly is happening in the world of Bitcoin right now. For some, this decline off the mid-$15,000 price yesterday means this is an even better buying opportunity:

“We are buyers of bitcoin on this pullback,” Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said in a Friday note. “The intrinsic/fundamental value of bitcoin has risen in the past month given the surge of new wallets and hence, explains the rise in our short-term target price.” (Source – CNBC)

While most veteran Bitcoin traders are chanting HODL right now (a popular term that means hold on for dear life) new investors are panicking, especially those who did crazy things like mortgaging their home to buy Bitcoin at $19,000. Still, most veteran investors will tell you that dips like these are incredibly normal and actually represent a good buying opportunity to essentially get Bitcoin at a discount.

Still, the recent volatility has caused a lot of new doubt into the viability of Bitcoin and Blockchain technology as a whole. Here are some recent tweets that have been making the rounds from the bears:

bitcoin-slow-transaction-speed

bitcoin-bubble

bitcoin-definition-of-a-bubble

Of course, for every tweet about Bitcoin being a bubble or about how deep it will dip are a dozen others where veteran traders and investment analysts share their thoughts, and most seem just as bullish as they were at $19,000. I’ve heard a lot of rumors about a support at $10,000 and another at $8,000 – I’ve also heard people say Bitcoin is headed down to $100 or lower.

While it’s fun to watch people speculate from both sides, the reality is that every week in the world of Bitcoin brings with it new market dynamics and moves everyone (veterans alike) into uncharted territory. While it’s easy for people who missed out on Bitcoin to get excited when it drops so they can say, “I told you so” – it’s also easy for veterans to say “we’ve been here before and survived, these noobs don’t know anything.”

No matter what side of the fence you’re on, the reality is that there really isn’t any data you can look at to predict what Bitcoin is going to do next. Yes, a ton of people who had never invested in Bitcoin jumped in the mix this month. At the same time, a lot of people who had invested in Bitcoin when it was much lower did absolutely cash out close to the peak at $20,000.

Like I said above, the reality is nobody really knows what is causing Bitcoin to go up or down any more. There are lots of theories but with Christmas just a day a way let’s be honest, your guess is as good as mine. I personally find myself in the camp of other long-time Bitcoin investors and am personally buying since I also think this is a dip and the chance to get Bitcoin at a discount.

What do you think? Is the mid $13,000’s going to be a low everyone wish they bought at six months from now or is this still just the beginning of a steady decline?

 

Bitcoin bounces back, approaches $16k, is the crash over?

bitcoin-crash-technical-trader

Friday was a big day in the cryptocurrency world as Bitcoin dipped into the $10,000 range – 50% off it’s high of over $20,000 a little over a week ago. As Bitcoin tumbled so did just about every cryptocurrency on the market with Ethereum and Litecoin making the bulk of the news since these are the two most popular altcoins right now.

Ethereum dipped into the mid $400’s while Litecoin went as low as the mid $100’s. There was a time on Friday (yes, just yesterday) where you could but Bitcoin for around $10,000, Ethereum for $450 and Litecoin for $150.

The most common explanation for yesterday’s massive price movement was profit taking. With Bitcoin staying so high for so long, many investors just decided now was time to lock in their profits. At the same time, December saw a huge increase in the number of brand new cryptocurrency investors, many of whom were not prepared to watch their investment go down so quickly after buying in the $19,000 range.

It is also not hard to believe that a fair number of these new investors panicked and sold Bitcoin as it fell causing it to take an even deeper dive. On both Reddit (/r/bitcoin) and Bitcoin Talk (a popular Bitcoin forum) veteran crypto investors made fun of all the new investors that have jumped on the Bitcoin bandwagon, here’s one of my favorite images that’s making the rounds right now:

noob-crypto-traders

Right now I think there are two camps forming in the Bitcoin world. For veteran investors that have been in BTC for a while now, these dips come with the territory, they’re used to them, and there’s even a term for what do do in these situations – HODL. For those who don’t know – HODL stands for, hold on for dear life, i.e. don’t sell.

On the other side are new investors. People who sat around the dinner table during Thanksgiving, heard a few family members brag about how much money they made off of Bitcoin and decided they had to jump in. Many of these new investors live in a world where Bitcoin at $17k is about as low as they’re comfortable with – they’re looking for the run up to $30k so at close to $10k yesterday the sky was falling for them.

bitcoin-price-dec-23-2017

As of now (9:48AM PST on Saturday December 23rd to be exact!), Bitcoin has made it’s way back up to the mid $15,000’s and there’s a growing contingency of investors that seem to feel like this is the beginning of the next rally up and beyond $20k. Many people are now starting to question if it’s really fair to even call this a crash, I think this tweet does the best to illustrate this point:

dec22-bitcoin-crash

So like the title of this post says, Bitcoin has bounced back over $5,000 up from it’s low and $16,000 is in sight. My question is – is the crash over? Was this even a crash? Or is this just a momentary dip on Bitcoin’s way up to fresh new highs? 

GDAX Sign In seems to be broken amidst Bitcoin Cash frenzy

So I just tried to sign-into GDAX and this is what I saw:

gdax-down-bitcoin-cash

I’m not entirely too surprised to see this since CoinBase and GDAX (which technically is also CoinBase) launched Bitcoin Cash but had to suspend transactions four minutes in. The last 24-hours have been nothing short of a Michael Lewis book as CoinBase CEO wrote a blog post announcing a formal investigation into potential insider trading:

Given the price increase in the hours leading up the announcement, we will be conducting an investigation into this matter. If we find evidence of any employee or contractor violating our policies — directly or indirectly — I will not hesitate to terminate the employee immediately and take appropriate legal action. (Source – CoinBase blog)

While this controversy continues to unfold, the company also announced that Bitcoin Cash should go live again sometime today on GDAX. My guess is that this is why trying to login to GDAX gives me a “Rate limit exceeded.” error – too many people are trying to sign in and buy Bitcoin Cash.

The question is, once they do resume trading of Bitcoin Cash will all the hype that has been created over the last 24-hours inspire even more people to buy and continuing to drive the price up. Oh and in that case, we would be crazy not to buy Bitcoin Cash today?